Dream can push Valkyries to the brink in Game 4

The Atlanta Dream host the Golden State Valkyries in Game 4 of the WNBA Finals on Saturday at State Farm Arena. Tip-off is 1 p.m. Eastern, moved up so the arena can also host the Atlanta Hawks' home opener that night. Read more: WNBA Finals Game 4

Atlanta leads the best-of-seven series 2-1 after dropping Game 1 on the road, 68-64, then winning Game 2, 79-65, and Game 3, 97-71.

A Dream win would put them up 3-1 with a chance to close out the franchise's first championship in Game 5 on Monday in San Francisco. The Valkyries, in just their second season, are chasing the first title in franchise history.

ESPN lists Atlanta as a 5.5-point favorite with an over-under of 153.5, attributed to DraftKings. Atlanta's moneyline sits at -198, Golden State's at +164.

Both teams arrived by sweep. Atlanta beat the New York Liberty 3-0 in the semifinals, clinching 85-83 in Brooklyn on Oct. 9 for the Dream's first Finals berth since 2013. Golden State swept the defending champion Las Vegas Aces 3-0, winning the clincher 87-77 in overtime, to reach the Finals in just the franchise's second season.

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Golden State led the WNBA in points allowed and opponent shooting during the regular season. Atlanta ranked second in the league in rebounding and led it in forced turnovers.

The regular season flipped

Golden State swept the three regular-season meetings between these teams, winning 77-66 and 78-75 at home in late June and 88-83 at Atlanta on July 4. Golden State beat Atlanta in every meeting that counted before the playoffs began. Atlanta's turnaround over the first three games of the Finals has flipped that result.

Atlanta has outscored Golden State by a combined 40 points across Games 2 and 3 after the Valkyries controlled Game 1. Angel Reese had 30 points and 16 rebounds in Atlanta's Game 2 win.

Atlanta sold out State Farm Arena, which seats about 17,000, for Game 3, its first home game in this series and the franchise's first Finals home game since 2013. WNBA commissioner Cathy Engelbert said moving the series there "dramatically expands the seating capacity."

The arena holds roughly five times as many fans as the Dream's regular home, Gateway Center Arena, which seats about 3,500. The team has already said it will make State Farm its full-time home starting next season.

Injury situations on both sides

Atlanta forward Brionna Jones is out for the remainder of the season with a leg injury. Guard Matilde Villa is out as a coach's decision. Golden State center Iliana Rupert is out, an absence the team has listed as not injury related.

Game 5 is set for Monday in San Francisco if the Valkyries need it. A possible Game 6 back in Atlanta is unresolved; State Farm Arena has a separate scheduling conflict with the Hawks on Oct. 29, with Game 7, if necessary, in San Francisco.

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