Free NHL picks, every slate. The model's read against the market's with the vig taken out; a lean prints only past a four-point edge and every one is graded on the Results page, win or lose. Nothing here is behind a paywall. Season to date: 39-50.
No Lectures. Just Sports.
NHL, every slate — free. The desk prices every NHL game with the moneyline at three books, the total, starting goalies and rest spots, then reads the home team's chance against the market's own number with the vig taken out. A lean is only posted when the model's read beats the market by four points or more; most games get none. Every lean is dated, posted at the price taken, and graded on the
Results page — win or lose, nothing is removed. Nothing on this site is behind a paywall.
Record
39-50
91 posted, 89 graded
Units
-13.28
one unit per lean at the posted price
Friday, November 6
CBJ at
BUF7:00 PM ET · KeyBank Center · CBJNHL, ESPN+, MSGB
CBJ +142 DK / +146 FD / +145 MGM
BUF -170 DK / -178 FD / -175 MGM
Total 6.5
Goalies CBJ: Jet Greaves (confirmed); BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (likely)
Spot CBJ on a back-to-back; BUF on a back-to-back
Read BUF 63% by the model, 61% by the market
No lean
SJ at
MIN8:00 PM ET · Grand Casino Arena · NBC Sports BA, NHL Net
SJ +220 DK / +220 FD / +220 MGM
MIN -270 DK / -275 FD / -275 MGM
Total 6.5
Goalies SJ: Yaroslav Askarov (projected); MIN: Jesper Wallstedt (confirmed)
Spot SJ on a back-to-back
Read MIN 76% by the model, 70% by the market
Lean: MIN -270 76%
model edge 6 points over the market at DraftKings
ANA at
CGY8:00 PM ET · Scotiabank Saddledome · ESPN+, Prime Video (Local)
ANA +124 DK / +125 FD / +125 MGM
CGY -148 DK / -150 FD / -150 MGM
Total 6.5
Goalies ANA: Lukas Dostal (projected); CGY: Dustin Wolf (confirmed)
Spot ANA on a back-to-back; CGY on a back-to-back
Read CGY 51% by the model, 57% by the market
Lean: ANA +125 49%
model edge 7 points over the market at FanDuel
Lines from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD) and BetMGM (MGM) at posting; confirm at your book.
How we build it
Public data, no black box. Schedules and results from ESPN, expected goals from MoneyPuck, lines from The Odds API (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM), starting goalies from Daily Faceoff.
The model. An Elo rating plus each team's rolling 25-game expected-goals differential plus back-to-back flags, through a logistic regression refit on every completed game since the 2023-24 season.
A lean only when it's worth printing. The market's number is the vig-free average of three books. A lean needs a four-point edge over that number; most games get none. Totals are shown as information — the backtest found no signal there.
The Results page is the product. Every lean, dated, at the price we posted it. Never edited after the fact. Judge us on it.
The card is information and the desk's read, not a promise of results and not advice. 21+ where applicable. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
