WNBA Finals Game 4 picks: Best bets for Valkyries vs. Dream
Atlanta is one win from its first WNBA title. Here's why Game 4 stays under the total and Angel Reese stays in scoring mode.
WNBAThe Atlanta Dream are two wins away from their first WNBA championship after a 97-71 rout of the Golden State Valkyries in Game 3. Atlanta hosts Game 4 Saturday at 1 p.m. ET on NBC in front of another sold-out crowd at State Farm Arena, which seats more than 17,000. Here are my Valkyries vs. Dream Game 4 picks. Read more: WNBA Finals Game 4 picks: Best bets for Valkyries vs. Dream.
Odds from DraftKings as of Saturday morning.
The line
- Spread: Dream -5.5 (-115), Valkyries +5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Dream -198, Valkyries +164
- Total: 153.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
What happened in Game 3
The Dream took control in the third quarter again. The game was tied at 49 before Atlanta scored eight straight, and the Dream closed the quarter on a 12-2 run. Atlanta outscored Golden State 51-31 in the second half.
Related: Atlanta Dream Breaks Through the Golden State Valkyries’ Synergy
Angel Reese posted another double-double with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and three steals. Rhyne Howard added 16 points and five steals, and Naz Hillmon scored 15. Atlanta shot 9-of-22 from three, dished 26 assists, and forced 15 turnovers.
Williams led Golden State with 15 points and eight assists but shot 5-0f-18. Cecilia Zandalasini was the only other starter in double digits with 13 points. Tiffany Hayes added 14 off the bench. 2026 Sixth Player of the Year Janelle Salaun scored 13 points, making 3-of-4 three-pointers.
Total
Game 3 finally broke the trend, with 168 combined points, but it took a lopsided game to get there. Atlanta shot 49.3% from the field and went to the free-throw line 29 times as the game got away from Golden State.
The first two games of the series finished with 132 and 144 points. Golden State hasn’t reached 72 points in back-to-back games, and the Valkyries had the league’s best defensive rating during the regular season.
Facing elimination, Golden State should lean on its defense and slow the pace. The Valkyries were 34.8% from the field in Game 3, and they don’t need to shoot well to drag this game into the 140s. A closer, more physical game is likely with a title on the line.
Pick: Under 153.5 (-110)
Player props
Reese has been dominant as a scorer and rebounder, but she isn’t the one running Atlanta’s offense. That job belongs to Canada, who has 25 assists through three Finals games.
Through her first six playoff games, Reese averaged 1.7 assists. She has had three in each of the last two games, but most of Atlanta’s ball movement still runs through Canada and the guards. Reese’s touches come in the post and on the glass, where she’s looking to score.
If Golden State packs the paint to slow her down, Reese should be more focused on finishing through contact than passing out of it. The 2.5 line asks her to beat her playoff average by a full assist.
Pick: Angel Reese Under 2.5 assists (-146)
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Trent Conner is a skilled writer with years of experience covering various sports. Based in West Virginia, he provides insightful analysis and expert predictions, with a focus on West Virginia University athletics. Trent stays on top of the latest trends and is passionate about delivering engaging and informative sports content.
This column was written by Trent Conner. It was fact-checked and copy edited by the Disruptor Sports desk working with Claude, a generative AI model made by Anthropic. How our newsroom works.
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