Godzilla's NFL picks and analysis: week 4

Colts -3.5 vs. Commanders (London)

Jayden Daniels is out, so Marcus Mariota gets the start for Washington. That changes the entire complexion of this game. Yes, he was stellar last week. Read more: Godzilla NFL picks week 4

Mariota can still create problems with his legs and he has enough experience to keep Washington functional, but Indianapolis now gets to build its defensive plan around limiting quarterback movement and forcing him to win repeatedly from the pocket.

Washington is also missing Sam Cosmi, which creates another problem up front. Indianapolis should be able to attack the interior and make Washington work for every first down.

The offensive advantage for the Colts is Jonathan Taylor. This is the kind of matchup where Indianapolis should lean on Taylor early, stay ahead of the chains and keep the pressure off Daniel Jones. If Taylor starts ripping off four, five and six yards a carry, Washington is going to have a difficult time getting the Colts into obvious passing situations.

Tyler Warren is another matchup problem in the middle of the field. Washington already has enough injury issues defensively, and Warren gives Indianapolis a big target on third down and in the red zone.

Related: Isaiah Davis, David Montgomery, and Malik Neighbors lead my anytime touchdown bets

London games can get weird, but Indianapolis has the healthier quarterback situation and the more reliable offensive identity. Washington can hang around for a while, but eventually the Colts' running game should take over.

Pick: Colts -3.5.

Patriots at Bills -7

Seven points is never something I love laying in a division game, but Buffalo has the best player on the field in Josh Allen. That matters. Drake Maye, or Fake Maye?

New England's path is to shorten the game, run the football, avoid turnovers and make Buffalo grind out long drives. The problem comes when Buffalo gets ahead. If the Patriots fall behind by ten points and have to abandon the run, this becomes exactly the kind of game Buffalo wants. Allen starts extending plays, the Patriots have to defend for five and six seconds, and eventually coverage breaks down.

New England is also missing a major receiving weapon, which makes it harder to threaten Buffalo vertically. The Patriots need a near-perfect game to stay inside this number. What has New England shown us so far? Its powder-puff 2025 schedule is now rearing its honest head. That is usually where I want the favorite.

I would rather have Buffalo -7 than -7.5, because the touchdown is a key number, but at seven I'm still willing to lay it.

Pick: Bills -7.

Cowboys at Texans -3

This is one of my favorite matchups on the early board. The Texans are 0-3. If there ever was a must-win game in week four in the NFL, this is it.

Houston gets Nico Collins back, and that changes everything for C.J. Stroud. When Collins is on the field, defenses have to respect the deep outside route, the intermediate dig and the back-shoulder ball. That stretches the field and creates more room underneath.

Dallas is already dealing with injuries defensively, and Houston should attack those weaknesses immediately. The Cowboys' offense can still score, but their biggest problem is going to be protection. If Houston can get Dak Prescott into third-and-long, the Texans can turn loose the pass rush and force him to hold the ball longer than he wants.

The key for Dallas is staying balanced. If the Cowboys are running the football successfully and keeping Houston from teeing off, they can make this a fourth-quarter game. But if Houston gets ahead early and forces Dallas to throw 40-plus times, I like the Texans' chances of creating sacks and turnovers.

Houston is at home, Collins is back, and the number is only a field goal. That's enough for me.

Pick: Texans -3.

Jets at Bears -3.5

This is a quarterback-and-defense handicap, and I'm siding with Chicago.

Caleb Williams being unavailable obviously changes the Bears offense, but the Jets have their own enormous problem. Breece Hall is out. Hall is the player who gives the Jets instant offense. He can take a basic handoff or short pass and turn it into 50 yards. Without him, the Jets become much easier to defend.

Chicago can crowd the line, squeeze the running lanes and make the Jets prove they can consistently throw the football. That is exactly where the Bears want this game. Whoever takes snaps under center for Chicago doesn't need to throw for 350 yards. He needs to protect the football, take the easy completions and let Chicago's defense and field position do the heavy lifting.

Soldier Field also matters in this kind of game. This has the feel of an ugly, physical afternoon where one turnover, one short field or one special-teams play becomes the difference. The 3.5 makes you sweat because a three-point Bears win doesn't cash, but I think Chicago creates enough extra possessions to stretch the margin.

Pick: Bears -3.5.

Titans at Ravens -11.5

Baltimore is clearly the better football team. But week to week, the Titans are improving. This team, as putrid as it looked at home against the Jets, could be 2-1 if just two plays were different.

Lamar Jackson is the best player in the matchup, Baltimore has the stronger roster, and the Ravens should win. But eleven and a half points in the NFL is enormous. The Titans don't need to win this game. They don't even need to play particularly well. They need to stay close enough that one late touchdown or field goal keeps them inside the number.

Baltimore's biggest advantage is obviously the Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry combination. If Tennessee loses gap discipline, Baltimore can bury them quickly. The Titans have to force Baltimore into long drives and prevent explosive rushing plays. If the Ravens are getting 20 and 30 yards every time Jackson or Henry touches the football, forget it. But if Tennessee can make them grind out ten-play drives, this spread becomes much harder to cover.

The Titans also need to avoid the killer turnover. One interception or strip sack that gives Baltimore the ball at the Tennessee 25 could break the entire handicap. This is purely a number play. Baltimore wins. But eleven and a half is too much.

Pick: Titans +11.5.

Rams -3.5 at Eagles

This is one of my favorite plays on the board. Philadelphia is dealing with major offensive injuries, while the Rams get Puka Nacua back. That is a massive swing.

Nacua gives Matthew Stafford his most reliable chain-mover and his best weapon against zone coverage. Sean McVay can move him around the formation, use motion, put him in the slot and manufacture favorable matchups.

Philadelphia's offensive injuries create the bigger problem. Without DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, the Eagles lose two of their most dependable pass-catchers. That allows the Rams defense to squeeze the running game and challenge Philadelphia's remaining receivers to win outside.

The Rams do have defensive injury concerns, so this is not completely clean. But the offensive matchup still favors Los Angeles. If Stafford gets into rhythm early and the Rams build even a small lead, Philadelphia could struggle to chase. That is the key. The Eagles are much more comfortable playing from ahead or even. They are far less dangerous when forced to throw repeatedly with a depleted receiving corps.

Pick: Rams -3.5.

Jaguars at Bengals -2.5

At -2.5, I'm taking Cincinnati. The number matters here. If this were Cincinnati -3.5, I would be far less interested. At -2.5, I'm essentially asking the Bengals to win the game at home.

Jacksonville has enough offensive talent to make this competitive, and Trevor Lawrence is capable of attacking Cincinnati down the field. But when the game gets into the fourth quarter and both teams need a conversion on third-and-7, I trust Cincinnati's passing game more.

The Bengals have the weapons to isolate Jacksonville's secondary and create favorable matchups on the perimeter. The key is protection. If Jacksonville can create pressure with four and keep extra defenders in coverage, Cincinnati could struggle. But if the Bengals give their quarterback time, their receiving talent should eventually win. Remember, they should have beaten last week on the road had they not fumbled the ball away.

This looks like a one-possession game. Give me the home team laying less than a field goal.

Pick: Bengals -2.5.

Packers -3.5 at Buccaneers

This is all about quarterback disparity. Baker Mayfield is out, and Tampa Bay is turning to an inexperienced, undrafted rookie quarterback with no NFL snaps. That gives Green Bay an enormous schematic advantage.

The Packers can crowd the line of scrimmage, take away the easy running lanes and make Tampa's quarterback diagnose NFL coverages after the snap. That is a brutal assignment. Green Bay can disguise pressure, rotate safeties late and force Tampa Bay to play left-handed.

The Buccaneers' defense can keep them in this game for a while, maybe. But eventually the Packers should create a short field, whether from a sack, a tipped pass or an interception. Once Green Bay gets a lead, the pressure on Tampa Bay's young, untested quarterback only gets worse.

As awful as Green Bay has looked, this is a gift win on the road. The hook over three is not ideal, but the quarterback edge is simply too large to ignore.

Pick: Packers -3.5.

Cardinals -2.5 at Giants

This is another quarterback-driven handicap. Jameis Winston starts for New York. We know what Jameis Winston brings. He can throw for 300 yards. He can also throw the football directly to the other team wearing red jerseys.

Arizona doesn't need to completely dominate New York. The Cardinals need to stay patient, disguise coverage and wait for the mistake. The Giants' offensive line and pass protection also remain concerns; it's in tatters. If Arizona can consistently pressure Winston without sending extra blitzers, New York is going to have problems sustaining drives.

The Cardinals are only laying 2.5. That means we don't need a blowout. We simply need Arizona to win the football game. That is enough value for me.

Pick: Cardinals -2.5.

Dolphins at Vikings -10.5

This is a huge number. But Miami's offensive situation is bad enough that I'm willing to lay it. De'Von Achane is gone. That removes Miami's most explosive running back and one of the few players who can turn a five-yard play into a touchdown. Without Achane, the Dolphins have to sustain drives, and that is much harder.

Minnesota can now play more aggressively. The Vikings can squeeze the run, attack the quarterback and force Miami to consistently win on third down. Even with Minnesota dealing with injuries of its own, the Vikings have the deeper roster and a massive home-field advantage.

The biggest reason I'm laying 10.5 is game script. If Minnesota goes up 10-0 or 14-3, Miami is in big trouble. The Dolphins can no longer rely on Achane to generate cheap yards, and suddenly the Vikings' pass rush can attack every snap. That is how these games get away from bad teams. Ten and a half is ugly, but sometimes the ugly number exists because the mismatch is real.

Pick: Vikings -10.5.

Broncos at 49ers -3

This is one of my favorite underdogs. San Francisco is missing Nick Bosa, and that matters enormously. Bosa changes protection schemes. He forces offenses to keep a tight end or running back in protection. Without him, Denver can send more receivers into routes and give its quarterback more time.

San Francisco is also dealing with other major injuries in the trenches, and Denver is exactly the kind of team that can take advantage. The Broncos can rush the passer. They can play physical coverage. They can play zone, man or put eight in the box. They can force San Francisco to execute long drives rather than living off explosive plays. Denver's defense is for real.

Pick: Broncos +3.

Chiefs -4.5 at Raiders

Las Vegas has played well. That does not mean I'm fading Patrick Mahomes.

The Raiders' biggest chance is Maxx Crosby. If Crosby wrecks Kansas City's protection, he can completely change the game. Kansas City has to chip him, move the pocket and get the ball out quickly. That's Mahomes' signature offense. If they do that, the Raiders are going to have to defend Mahomes for four quarters, and that is a very different challenge.

Division games are always dangerous because these teams know each other so well. But Kansas City still has the quarterback edge, the coaching edge and the ability to convert the high-leverage downs: third down, red zone, the final five minutes. Those are the possessions that usually decide these games, and I trust Kansas City in those moments.

Pick: Chiefs -4.5.

Chargers at Seahawks -7

The Bolts are a desperate team. Seattle may be the better football team. So far, it hasn't shown it.

But seven points gives the Chargers too many ways to cash. The Chargers can lose by six. They can lose by four. They can be down ten late and score one garbage-time touchdown. Or they can win outright and save their so-far miserable season. That is what makes a full touchdown so valuable in the NFL.

Seattle's home-field advantage is real. The Seahawks can make life difficult with crowd noise, pass rush and field position. But Los Angeles has enough offensive talent to manufacture points late, and that matters when you are catching seven. This is not necessarily a call that the Chargers win outright. It is a call that Seattle has to win convincingly, and that is a different bet.

Pick: Chargers +7.

Sunday night: Lions -3.5 at Panthers

This is my favorite matchup of the week. Carolina is devastated in the secondary. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson are both on injured reserve, a nightmare against Detroit's passing juggernaut.

Jared Goff and the Lions offense are built to destroy backup defensive backs. They use motion. They use play action. They create route combinations that force young corners and safeties to communicate perfectly. If Carolina blows one assignment, Detroit can turn it into six points.

The Panthers' best chance is to run the football and shorten the game. They cannot afford to get into a track meet with Detroit. If the Lions get out to an early lead, Carolina's entire game plan changes, Detroit can rush the passer, and then Carolina's offensive line becomes exposed trying to throw from behind. This matchup sets up beautifully for Detroit.

Pick: Lions -3.5.

Monday night: Falcons at Saints -2.5

Division game. Short number. Give me Atlanta. Somebody has to stop Bijan Robinson.

New Orleans has multiple injury concerns in the front seven, and that creates an opportunity for Atlanta to lean heavily on the running game. The Falcons need to make this physical from the first drive: run the football, stay out of third-and-long, control possession, and make the Saints tackle over and over again.

Atlanta does not need to get into a shootout. The Falcons need to turn this into a possession game and keep the Saints offense standing on the sideline. The 2.5 is also a key number. If this comes down to a field goal, which many NFC South games do, we are on the right side of it, and I also think Atlanta wins outright.

Pick: Falcons +2.5.

Godzilla Money Five

Lions -3.5. Rams -3.5. Texans -3. Packers -3.5. Broncos +3.

Godzilla lock of the week: Lions -3.5.

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