A Week 5 DraftKings Lineup Built to Fade the Public

The idea was right last week, but we just had the wrong players. A lineup with two tight ends ended up being one of the optimal lineups, but you needed T.J. Hockenson and Brock Bowers. The lineup with both those tight ends actually had Rashee Rice, who had zero points! DFS can get crazy, which is why we trust the math and avoid chalky lineups, especially when building for a single-entry contest. Here is my favorite stand-alone Week 5 DraftKings DFS lineup, targeting key games that seem like fantasy gold mines.

QB: Aaron Rodgers - $5,300

Aaron Rodgers has been a top-10 quarterback the past two weeks. He is throwing the ball deep, which is a surprise from the 42-year-old. He ranks seventh in yards per attempt and has the second-highest deep ball rate over the last two weeks. That also shows in his accuracy metrics. He has the fifth-lowest highly accurate throw rate, and the highest off-target rate.

The matchup suits him this week, however. The Colts allow the fifth-most yards per attempt, and the ninth-most EPA per dropback. He could surprise a lot of people this week and keep this offense scoring at a high rate.

RB: D’Andre Swift - $6,200

Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) is dealing with multiple injuries and is sidelined this week against the Packers. D’Andre Swift should get his normal opportunities, along with some more to fill the void. Swift has had at least 15 rushing attempts in every game this season, and has 12 targets through the air.

Monangai had a career week against the Jets with 30 attempts for 146 yards and two touchdowns. He has had 10 attempts in every game, so Swift should see a decent uptick in usage. Caleb Williams is still out, so it will be Tyson Bagent under center. I expect Ben Johnson to continue to utilize his rushing attack with Swift as the focal point. The matchup is pretty straightforward. The Bears average the most rushing yards per game (196.3), while the Packers allow the fifth-most per game (139.3).

RB: Braelon Allen - $5,400

Breece Hall is not in the lineup again this week, which gives us Braelon Allen for a low price. He had 16 touches for 67 total yards last week on 94% of snaps. The Jets did not have many snaps as a team last week, but it was promising to see Allen take almost all of them. He is seeing enough volume and workload for him to have a great chance of paying off his price. He also has a good matchup against the Browns. They allow the second-highest explosive run rate and the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt.

WR: Jaxon Smith-Njigba - $8,800

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the player I’m building my lineup around. Everyone is going to try and fit Gibbs into their lineups, so I’m fading the public by getting JSN. He is coming off a “down” week, where he only saw six targets, catching five for 76 yards. It was a respectable stat line, but not for JSN. He had six touchdowns and 405 receiving yards in his first three games.

The matchups get tougher over the next couple of weeks, but that is when the Seahawks turn to Smith-Njigba. The 49ers have a good defense, but they do not have anybody who can slow down JSN. I’m not sure anyone in the league can. He was only stopped last week because the Chargers had four turnovers and let Emanuel Wilson run all over them as the Seahawks coasted to a victory.

WR: Michael Wilson - $6,200

The Lions/Cardinals matchup is the most fantasy-optimal spot on the slate, but I am fading the majority of the options. I think they are going to be too popular, and everyone will play the same lineups. I want to be different, while also getting some exposure to some of the lower-owned players in the matchup.

Michael Wilson should be rostered on a lot of lineups, but I expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to get a lot of attention, with Wilson’s teammate Trey McBride. Jahmyr Gibbs may be the most-owned player in every contest, despite his $9,800 price tag.

Wilson has had 30 targets in his last two games, and is playing a secondary that allows the sixth-most yards per target to perimeter wide receivers. He and McBride are getting elite usage, and I am opting for the lesser-owned player in Wilson.

WR: DK Metcalf - $5,400

I’m running a skinny stack with DK Metcalf and Rodgers to make this lineup different than the rest, and it could pay off. Metcalf has had two solid weeks, as Rodgers has looked his way more. He caught 5-of-9 targets for 115 yards last week. He has faced a slew of tough cornerbacks in the first four weeks.

Indianapolis has allowed teams to throw for 261.3 passing yards per game this season. Metcalf ranks fifth in week four with 155 air yards, which is no surprise due to Rodgers going deep more often. The Colts allow explosive plays at a high rate, giving up six receptions of 40+ yards through four weeks. Expect Rodgers to take a couple shots at Metcalf this week.

TE: Colston Loveland - $4,600

Colston Loveland has not had a good start to the season, but last week could be the start of something good. He had nine targets in the first three weeks and had nine last week. He caught six for 57 yards. Bagent is looking his way. Loveland played 92% of snaps and led the team with a 26.5% target and 34.8% first-read share. He also had three red zone targets and 2.38 YPRR. Loveland is a streaky player and could be heating up with Bagent under center.

FLEX: Sam LaPorta - $4,900

While everyone is looking to play Gibbs and St. Brown, I am opting to run another two-tight end lineup with Sam LaPorta as my flex. He is coming off a stellar game where he saw 13 targets, catching eight for 84 yards and a touchdown. Now he is walking into a matchup against the Cardinals, who allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Isaiah Likely saw 12 targets last week against the Cardinals, but Theo Johnson found the end zone. LaPorta should see a lot of targets as the Cardinals try to contain Gibbs and St. Brown. He will be the open option for Jared Goff and should do well.

DEF: Vikings - $3,100

The Saints looked bad last week against the Falcons on Monday night. Now they have to play the league’s toughest defense on a short week. The Saints have no rushing attack. They managed 50 rushing yards last week, and average 88.5. The Vikings allow the fewest points per game (12.8) and the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game (94.5). The key is the turnover differential. They ranked second with a +5 differential, while the Saints have the second-worst at -5. The Vikings should have a chance to score a lot of points as one of the most expensive defenses.