WNBA Finals Game 6 picks: Valkyries vs. Dream best bets

The Golden State Valkyries are one win away from a championship in just their second season, and they will try to close it out on the road Thursday in Game 6 of the WNBA Finals. Golden State took a 3-2 series lead with a 64-55 win in Game 5 at Chase Center, holding the Atlanta Dream to 22 first-half points and 29.2% shooting from the field. Game 6 tips off at 12:30 p.m. ET on Thursday at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The Dream are 4.5-point favorites on DraftKings with the total at 147.5. If Atlanta wins, Game 7 would be Saturday at Chase Center. Read more: WNBA Finals Game 6 picks: Valkyries vs. Dream best bets.

Odds from DraftKings as of Wednesday at noon.

The line

• Spread: Dream -4.5 (-112), Valkyries +4.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Dream -185, Valkyries +154
• Total: 147.5 (Over -105, Under -115)

What happened in Game 5

Golden State controlled Game 5 with its defense. The Valkyries held Atlanta to 55 points, a season low, on 19-of-65 shooting (29.2%), and turned the Dream’s 17 turnovers into 21 points. Atlanta scored just 22 points in the first half.

Related: WNBA Finals Game 6 relocates to State Farm Arena

Kiah Stokes led the way with a season-high 13 points, eight rebounds, and three blocks, including three 3-pointers. Veronica Burton added 13 points, eight rebounds, and four blocks, while Tiffany Hayes scored 12. Cecilia Zandalasini added 12 off the bench.

Rhyne Howard kept Atlanta in it with 20 points on 7-of-15 shooting, but she didn’t get much help. Allisha Gray went 4-of-12 for 10 points, and Angel Reese finished with seven points on 2-of-8 shooting.

Total

This series has been a grind, and the last two games were the lowest-scoring of the Finals. Game 4 finished 67-62 and Game 5 finished 64-55, so the combined totals were 129 and 119. The under cashed in four of five games this series. The only exception was Atlanta’s 97-71 blowout in Game 3.

Golden State finished the regular season first in the WNBA in points allowed at 75.1 per game, and it has played to that identity in the Finals. In Game 5, the Valkyries forced 17 turnovers and held Atlanta to 6-of-26 from three. Stokes and Burton combined for seven blocks and controlled the paint.

Golden State’s offense hasn’t been much better, though. The Valkyries shot 39.3% from the field and 6-of-24 from deep in Game 5, and they averaged 82.2 points per game in the regular season. Both teams are tight, and with the season on the line for Atlanta, Game 6 should be played at the same physical, half-court pace.

The total only dropped three points from Game 5 (150.5) after another game that finished well under. Pinnacle has it priced at -118. I still think there’s value here.

Pick: Under 147.5 (-115)

Player props

Angel Reese struggled to score in Game 5, going 2-of-8 from the field with seven points, but she still finished with 15 rebounds and five assists. Even on her worst nights, she has impacted the game on the glass.

Reese has gone over 12.5 rebounds in two of her last four Finals games, grabbing 16 in Game 2 and 15 in Game 5. She was just under that number with 12 in Game 3, and the only real miss was Game 4, when she had nine rebounds while shooting 2-of-12. At plus money, I’ll take the shot that she has another big night on the glass with Atlanta’s season on the line.

The low-scoring environment helps here, too. Atlanta shot 19-of-65 in Game 5, which means 46 missed shots, and Golden State missed 37 of its own. More misses mean more rebounding chances, and Reese has been the most consistent rebounder on the floor in this series. Facing elimination at home, she’s going to crash the glass every possession.

Pinnacle has the line a full rebound lower at 11.5, with the over juiced to -132. So getting 12.5 at plus money on DraftKings is a fair trade-off.

Pick: Angel Reese over 12.5 rebounds (+101)

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