WNBA Finals Game 3 picks: Best bets for Valkyries vs. Dream

The WNBA Finals are tied 1-1 after the Atlanta Dream answered with a 79-65 win in Game 2. The series shifts to Atlanta for Game 3, Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET, and the Dream are moving to State Farm Arena. It seats more than 17,000, instead of their usual 3,500-seat Gateway Center Arena. The game is sold out and should be a hostile environment. Here are my Valkyries vs. Dream Game 3 picks. Read more: WNBA Finals Game 3 picks: Best bets for Valkyries vs. Dream.

Odds from DraftKings as of Wednesday at noon.

The line

• Spread: Dream -3.5 (-112), Valkyries +3.5 (-108)
• Moneyline: Dream -166, Valkyries +140
• Total: 153.5 (Over -110, Under -110)

Injury watch: Brionna Jones remains out for Atlanta. Golden State has no injuries listed.

What happened in Game 2

Angel Reese promised to be more aggressive after going scoreless in the second half of Game 1, and she delivered. Reese finished with 30 points and 16 rebounds on 10-of-16 shooting, becoming the third player in WNBA history with at least 30 points and 15 rebounds in a Finals game.

Related: How the Golden State Valkyries Became Women’s Sports’ First $1 Billion Team

Atlanta’s defense did the rest. The Dream forced 19 turnovers, turned them into 24 points, and won the fast-break battle 19-0. Rhyne Howard had the second-most steals in WNBA Finals single-game history. Golden State shot 34.4% from the field and 7-of-24 from three. Gabby Williams went 3-of-15 for 14 points after scoring 26 in Game 1.

Our Game 2 picks split. The Valkyries -2.5 missed, but Jordin Canada cleared her assists line with 10.

Total

The total sits at 153.5, and neither Finals game has come close to it. Game 1 finished with 132 combined points, and Game 2 had 144.

Golden State hasn’t reached 70 points in either game. The Valkyries had the best defensive rating in the league during the regular season, and Atlanta ranked third. Four of the last five meetings between these teams finished under 153.5 points.

Some positive regression for Golden State’s shooting is possible, but it would take a big jump to reach this number. Both defenses have controlled this series, and that shouldn’t change with a bigger crowd in Atlanta. Pinnacle has the under 153.5 at -121, so we are getting solid value on DraftKings.

Pick: Under 153.5 (-110)

Player props

Kaila Charles has carved out a bigger role as the series has gone on. After scoring two points in each of the first two semifinal games against Las Vegas, she has scored seven or more in three consecutive games. She had seven in Game 1 and nine in Game 2.

Her minutes are trending up, too. Charles played 26 minutes Monday and made three of the Valkyries’ seven 3-pointers, more than anyone else on the team. She’s shooting 39.1% from three in the playoffs, up from 27.6% during the regular season.

With Williams struggling to find her shot and Golden State searching for offense, Charles has become one of the Valkyries’ most reliable scoring options off the bench. She also grabbed a postseason career-high 10 rebounds in Game 1, so her minutes are coming from more than just shooting.

The market is on this one. Pinnacle, the sharpest book on the market, has the over at -123, so -101 at DraftKings is a much better number.

Pick: Kaila Charles Over 6.5 points (-101)

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