Godzilla's Full NFL Week 3 Card

WASHINGTON, DC. For all my picks and my season record against the spread: GodzillaWins.com. Less talk. More winners.

1:00 PM ET

Chiefs -10.5 at Dolphins. Miami looks like a team deep in a rebuild, and Kansas City looks ready to punish every mistake. The Dolphins need long, clean drives to keep this close; the Chiefs can flip the field with one stop. I'm asking KC to cover a big road number, but I trust its ability to turn Miami's stalled possessions into points. The Fish are in the water with a shark. Kansas City is 2-0; Miami is 0-2. Pick: Chiefs -10.5.

Panthers -2.5 at Browns. Bryce Young is starting to look more comfortable, and Carolina's run game gives him a way to stay ahead of the chains. That matters against a Cleveland defense that would love to make this a long-yardage brawl. The Browns won last week; I'm not buying a second straight victory. Give me the Cats to control the game and get out of Cleveland with the cover. Young has averaged 324 passing yards and thrown three touchdowns in each of Carolina's first two games. Pick: Panthers -2.5.

Titans at Giants -2.5. Jaxson Dart's knee injury changes this matchup: the Giants have to find offense without the quarterback who gave them a spark. If the forecast delivers rain, Tennessee can lean into a physical game and shorten the field. The Titans showed more fight against Philadelphia than they did in Week 1, and I'm willing to believe that version is closer to the truth. Give me the points, and I think Tennessee can win outright. Tennessee lost to the Eagles by four last week on a last-second broken-coverage play. New York lost to the Rams by 22 and lost Dart in the process. Pick: Titans +2.5.

Patriots at Jaguars -2.5. New England's reputation is carrying more weight with me than what I've seen from this matchup. They are trading off last season's Punch and Judy schedule. Trevor Lawrence gives Jacksonville the better chance to create a decisive play when a drive gets stuck. At home, the Jaguars can dictate the pace instead of letting the Patriots grind this into a possession-by-possession fight. I'll lay the short number with the Jags. New England comes in without starting right guard Mike Onwenu, a significant loss for the Patriots up front. Pick: Jaguars -2.5.

Chargers at Bills -7.5. Buffalo is a brutal destination for a Chargers offense still trying to find its footing. OC Mike McDaniel is on the hot seat. The Bills can make you chase the game early, and that is exactly where I don't want Los Angeles. Seven and a half is a serious price, so Buffalo needs to keep attacking after it gets a lead. I'm betting the Chargers' problems travel, and the Bills make them pay. Josh Allen has already accounted for nine touchdowns, and Buffalo has scored at least 36 points in both games. Pick: Bills -7.5.

Jets at Lions -6.5. Detroit has the firepower to put an opponent under pressure before halftime. The Jets have to sustain drives to keep that offense on the sideline, and I don't trust them to do it often enough. After the Packers clown car on Thursday night, I'm not granting New York extra credit for hanging around Green Bay. The Lions get rolling at home and clear the number. Jets quarterback Geno Smith has faced pressure on 43.4 percent of his dropbacks; Detroit has the pass rush to turn that into a very long afternoon. Pick: Lions -6.5.

Texans -1.5 at Colts. Houston came into the season with a pile of expectations, but it hasn't looked untouchable. Indianapolis is at home, getting points, and has a ground game capable of taking the heat off its quarterback. I don't see the Colts' rushing attack letting this team slide to 0-3 without a fight. Give me Indianapolis to win the line of scrimmage and win the game. Both teams are 0-2, so this is desperation football; I want Jonathan Taylor and the points at home. Making the playoffs at 0-3? Zero chance. Pick: Colts +1.5.

Seahawks -8.5 at Commanders. Washington should have more to show for its first two weeks, but Jayden Daniels' elbow injury has put Marcus Mariota in line to start. Sam Darnold is ready to return for Seattle, giving the Seahawks their starter back for this trip east. Eight and a half on the road is a lot, but I cannot back Mariota to keep pace if Seattle starts fast. It could get ugly for Washington. Seattle has allowed fewer than 20 points and fewer than four yards per play through two games, and is 7-0 in 1 p.m. Eastern road starts under Mike Macdonald. Pick: Seahawks -8.5.

Bengals -3.5 at Steelers. Pittsburgh's offense has given opponents little reason to fear an explosive afternoon. If the Steelers cannot protect Aaron Rodgers, Cincinnati can spend the day squeezing every passing window. Joe Burrow gives the Bengals the stronger answer when this division game comes down to quarterback play. I'll lay the points and trust Cincinnati to finish drives Pittsburgh can't. With Dexter Lawrence on the field, Cincinnati's defense has generated pressure on 45.2 percent of dropbacks and allowed just 2.9 yards per carry. The sad reality is that Father Time has caught up with Aaron Rodgers. He can't move, and he gets blitzed every down. It's sad to endure. Pick: Bengals -3.5.

4:05 PM ET

Cardinals at 49ers -7.5. San Francisco has the look of the team to beat in the NFC. Arizona got a win, congratulations, but this is a much tougher assignment. The 49ers can attack on the ground, set up their passing game, and force the Cardinals to play from behind. I expect San Francisco to take command early and cover at home. The 49ers are 2-0 with two blowout wins; Arizona already got a taste of top-tier NFC West competition in its loss to Seattle. Pick: 49ers -7.5.

Vikings -1.5 at Buccaneers. How good is this Minnesota defense? Tampa Bay is a serious test, and the Vikings' aggressive blitz approach will put that question front and center. Kyler Murray has cleared protocol and is set to return, which gives Minnesota another way to turn pressure into points. I like the Vikings' defense to create the extra possession that decides a tight road game. Minnesota has blitzed on 75.3 percent of plays through two weeks; Baker Mayfield is about to see pressure from every direction. Pick: Vikings -1.5.

4:25 PM ET

Raiders at Saints -3. I love what young coach Kellen Moore is building in New Orleans. The Saints just beat Baltimore, so they have a real chance here to show that performance was a step forward. Las Vegas will make them earn it, but I trust Moore to keep his offense attacking at home. Give me the Saints by more than a field goal. New Orleans erased a 21-point deficit against Detroit and an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit against Baltimore; this team has already shown it can take a punch and answer. Pick: Saints -3.

Ravens -3.5 at Cowboys, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This is Dallas's designated home game, but it's being played in Rio, so throw the usual home-field assumptions out the window. Baltimore is trying to rebound from its loss to the Saints, while Dak Prescott comes in after a strong performance against Washington. I expect both quarterbacks to give their teams a chance deep into this one. In another country, with more than a field goal in my pocket, I'll take the Cowboys. Prescott threw four touchdowns against Washington last week; Dallas has the passing attack to make Baltimore earn every point of this spread. Pick: Cowboys +3.5.

8:20 PM ET, Sunday Night Football

Rams -2.5 at Broncos. The Australia debacle is behind Los Angeles, and the Rams answered by beating the Giants last Monday night. Denver at home is a much stiffer test, especially with a short week for the Rams. But Matthew Stafford gives Los Angeles the edge I want when this game gets tight in the fourth quarter. The Rams are back; I'll lay the short number on Sunday night. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have combined for 259 rushing yards on 45 carries through two games, a ground game that can take some of the sting out of playing in Denver. Pick: Rams -2.5.

That's the board: 14 games, all graded, nothing scrubbed after the fact. Get every pick I make, updated all week, at GodzillaWins.com, and check the desk's own numbers on these same games on The Card. Less talk. More winners.

If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call 1-800-GAMBLER.